India's Import Curb Will Cost China Its Biggest Solar Panel Export Market

The world's largest solar panel manufacturer, China, may soon lose its top export market as India steps up with import restrictions effective April 1. The government, in a bid to prioritise self-reliance and curb the heavy reliance on Chinese imports despite being self-sufficient, has revised the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers List, or ALMM, mandating future government-subsidised or sponsored solar projects to use modules made by the approved domestic manufacturers.

Companies from Adani Green Energy Ltd. to Tata Power Ltd. and Insolation Energy Ltd. including ITI Ltd, and Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. are likely to benefit as these companies or their subsidiaries are listed in the revised ALMM List.

The government has revised the policy and reintroduced strict restrictions on importing solar panels, effective April 1.

This means projects commissioned in India from April 1 are mandated to use only panels from suppliers mentioned in "The Approved List of Models and Manufacturers". The revised list now excludes all overseas manufacturers, as opposed to the earlier relaxed list that the government formulated after realising that domestic capacity couldn't meet demand.

The revised norms would also cause a decline in the import of solar and wafers—two key precursors to producing solar panels—over the next few years as more Indian manufacturers announce their involvement in these areas.

In the last three years, China has accounted for, on average, 82% of India's total imports of photovoltaic cells assembled in modules or panel form. However, after the import curb, this trade is likely to crash.

While India's total imports from China did see a drop in the April 2023 to January 2024 period, a US Federal investigation determined that China was using loopholes in order to avoid the customs duty India imposes on Chinese imports of modules or panels. The investigation's final findings stated that China was using Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, and Cambodia.

According to Bloomberg, mainland China factories shipped $2.1 billion of solar panels to India in the six months through March 2024, making it China's top export destination. These shipments boosted solar cell demand due to rising local solar module production, reflecting how Indian project developers were racing to secure module supplies before the imposition of a trade barrier.

Companies like Adani Green Energy Ltd., Tata Power Ltd., Insolation Energy Ltd., ITI Ltd., and Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. stand to benefit in the Indian listed space, as these companies or their subsidiaries are listed in the revised ALMM List.

The approval of the companies increases their potential to obtain solar module orders for any government-subsidized sponsored project going forward.

In terms of enlisted capacity, Adani Enterprises subsidiary Mundra Solar has the highest capacity at 4,100 megawatts per year, followed by Insolation Energy with 604 megawatts per year and Tata Power Solar with 499 megawatts per year.

Adani Enterprises also stands to benefit more from the solar value chain potential, as its subsidiary, Mundra Solar PV Ltd., recently began commercial production of wafers and ingots. Furthermore, First Solar Inc. has also started shipping from its fully integrated India factory.

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